Ukraine: Citizen Media and Political Forecasting

Global Voices Online
Thursday, January 22, 2010

Some of the online conversations about this year's Ukrainian presidential candidates appear to be somewhat lacking in substance. This, in part, can be explained by the fact that the most popular of these politicians have been around for quite a while and there isn't much left to discuss about them. There's also certain voter fatigue, as well as the fact that some voters seem to be guided by their ideas of physical attractiveness rather than more practical considerations when choosing the head of their state. As one blogger - LJ user grebeniuk - noted in an earlier GV translation,

[...] Political advisers, marketing and advertising specialists don't even have to bother! Comb your candidate, do the makeup, and go ahead! It's funny and sad :) [...]

Over-simplification isn't always a bad thing, though. Moscow-based LJ user limikon, for example, has managed to gain some curious insight by focusing on something that the top 5 presidential candidates (as well as the candidate who came in seventh) shared on the CVs: their past ties to ex-president Leonid Kuchma. He stripped the candidates of their names, which must have seemed redundant in this context, and shared his insight (RUS):

It's quite amusing to read the results of the Ukrainian election

#1 - Kuchma's premier;
#2 - Kuchma's vice-premier;
#3 - Kuchma's vice-premier, head of the [National Bank of Ukraine];
#4 - Kuchma's acting head of the [National Bank];
#5 - Kuchma's premier;
#7 - head of Kuchma's [Presidential Administration]

The mighty old man has laid eggs into Ukrainian politics that will last for the next 20 years. [...]

Despite such familiarity and other discouraging factors, there was no lack of interest in the outcome of the election, and, as a result, the blogosphere was overflowing with political forecasting attempts on the eve of the Jan. 17 vote.

Below are some of the actual results of the first round of the election (more about the vote, its winners and runners-up is here):

#1 - Victor Yanukovych - 35.32% (8,686,751 votes)
#2 - Yulia Tymoshenko - 25.05% (6,159,829 votes)
#3 - Serhiy Tihipko - 13.06% (3,211,257 votes)
#4 - Arseniy Yatsenyuk - 6.96% (1,711,749 votes)
#5 - Victor Yushchenko - 5.41% (1,341,539 votes)

And here are a few summaries of the polls and forecasts that appeared on Ukrainian and Russian blogs.

LJ user vaxo (Ukrainian journalist Vakhtang Kipiani) surveyed 301 bloggers (UKR), 22 of whom (7.89%) did not plan to vote in this election at all. The poll's results are below:

#1 - Victor Yushchenko - 35.48% (99 votes)
#2 - Serhiy Tihipko - 14.7% (41 votes)
#3 - Oleh Tyahnybok - 9.68% (27 votes)
#4 - Yulia Tymoshenko - 5.73% (16 votes)
#5 - Victor Yanukovych - 2.51% (7 votes)

LJ user kermanich (Ukrainian journalist Andrey Manchuk) was not pleased with the results of this poll and wrote this (RUS) about the Ukrainian blogosphere and the society in general:

[...] Reading the results of such an impromptu voting on [Kipiani's blog], it seems as if Ukrainian bloggers live not just in some other country, but altogether on a different planet.

[...]

Such an indecent gap between the opinion of the people and the opinion of the "patriotic blogosphere," represented by a thin social stratum of office intelligentsia, shows how hopelessly removed these folks are from the people. [...]

At least two more polls conducted by Ukrainian bloggers had Victor Yushchenko as their winner.

At chomusyk LJ community ("Ask Me: All that you wanted to ask about"), 495 people responded (UKR), 57 (11.5%) of them did not support any of the candidates and 83 (16.8%) did not plan to go to the polling station at all. Here's the rest the vote breakdown (UKR):

#1 - Victor Yushchenko - 27.5% (136 votes)
#2 - Anatoliy Hrytsenko - 15.4% (76 votes)
#3 - Serhiy Tihipko - 9.9% (49 votes)
#4 - Oleh Tyahnybok - 6.9% (34 votes)
#5 - Yulia Tymoshenko - 6.3% (31 votes)
#6 - Arseniy Yatsenyuk - 1.8% (9 votes)
#7 - Victor Yanukovych - 1.2% (6 votes)

At LJ user ledilid's blog, 188 people turned up for a vote (UKR):

#1 - Victor Yushchenko - 43.1% (81 votes)
#2 - Oleh Tyahnybok - 20.2% (38 votes)
#3 - Anatoliy Hrytsenko - 10.6% (20 votes)
#4 - Serhiy Tihipko - 7.4% (14 votes)
#5 - Yulia Tymoshenko - 5.9% (11 votes)
#6 - Arseniy Yatsenyuk - 5.3% (10 votes)
#7 - Victor Yanukovych - 1.1% (2 votes)

A poll (RUS) at LJ user sunlike77's blog, which surveyed 479 bloggers, produced comparatively realistic results:

#1 - Victor Yanukovych - 34.7% (166 votes)
#2 - Yulia Tymoshenko - 30.7% (147 votes)

And the forecasts by 126 bloggers who took part in LJ user kotyhoroshko's The People's Prognosis project (UKR), produced a pretty good reflection of the actual results as well:

#1 - Victor Yanukovych - 29.27%
#2 - Yulia Tymoshenko - 21.56%
#3 - Serhiy Tihipko - 9.48%

A Twitter poll (RUS) set up by Odesa-based Twitter user #netocrat drew 335 votes and had the following vote breakdown:

#1 - Serhiy Tihipko - 34% (114 votes)
#2 - Victor Yushchenko - 19% (65 votes)
#3 - Yulia Tymoshenko - 14% (47 votes)
#4 - Anatoliy Hrytsenko - 10% (33 votes)
#5 - Arseniy Yatsenyuk - 7% (24 votes)
#6 - Oleh Tyahnybok - 6% (21 votes)
#7 - Victor Yanukovych - 6% (19 votes)

One of Russia's most popular bloggers, LJ user drugoi, introduced his Ukrainian election survey (RUS) with a photo of three activists of the Ukrainian women's group FEMEN, who were urging voters at a Kyiv polling station not to sell their votes (their slogan (RUS): "Don't be a whore! Don't sell your vote!"). As of now, 3,931 bloggers have cast their votes (RUS) - and the voting seems to keep going:

#1 - Victor Yanukovych - 17% (670 votes)
#2 - Serhiy Tihipko - 16.8% (662 votes)
#3 - Yulia Tymoshenko - 13.8% (541 votes)

Another popular Russian blogger, LJ user tema, had 13,842 bloggers respond to his election-related survey (RUS), which seemed like the least serious in tone and presentation, but which nevertheless managed to place the first three contenders in the right order:

#1 - Victor Yanukovych - 19.9% (2,758 votes)
#2 - Yulia Tymoshenko - 15.7% (2,175 votes)
#3 - Serhiy Tihipko - 12.2% (1,685 votes)

LJ user yashin (Russian opposition activist Ilya Yashin, whose blog carries the following tagline: "El pueblo unido jamás será vencido"/"The people united will never be defeated" - one of the slogans of the 2004 post-election protests in Ukraine) hosted a political prognosis contest (RUS), and below is the average outcome of the bets submitted by 168 bloggers:

#1 - Victor Yanukovych - 31.4%
#2 - Yulia Tymoshenko – 24.7%
#3 - Serhiy Tihipko - 9.48%

U.S.-based LJ user kireev (Aleksandr Kireev, founder of the bilingual Electoral Geography website), conducted a political forecasting competition (RUS) as well, in which 99 bloggers took part - and he even issued two awards: one for the best forecast and one for the worst.

The best forecast award went to LJ user tulskiy (Russian political analyst Mikhail Tulskiy), whose guess was very close to the actual results:

#1 - Victor Yanukovych - 34.5%
#2 - Yulia Tymoshenko - 23%
#3 - Serhiy Tihipko - 15.5%

The worst forecast award - an optimist's pink glasses - went to LJ user tanya_ogf, who made the following projections:

#1 - Yulia Tymoshenko - 23.4%
#2 - Victor Yushchenko - 20.7%
#3 - Victor Yanukovych - 19.4%

Ukraine: Bloggers Discuss Presidential Election

Global Voices Online
Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Ukrainians went to the polls on Sunday, Jan. 17, to choose their president from the 18 candidates running for the post this year. According to the election commission (UKR), opposition leader Victor Yanukovich received 35.32% of the vote, while prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko is in second place, with 25.05%. As neither won 50% of the vote, they face a runoff vote, scheduled for Feb. 7.

Serhiy Tihipko, a politician and a banker, who, among other things, served as Yanukovych's campaign chief in 2004, came in third, with 13.06% percent of the vote, while former parliament speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk won 6.96%.

Incumbent president Victor Yushchenko came in fifth with 5.41%.

Voter turnout was approximately 67%.

Below are some of the reactions from the Ukrainian blogosphere.

In the comments section to LJ user dali_bude's post, LJ user otar (Ukrainian journalist Otar Dovzhenko) initiated this quick discussion (UKR) of the outgoing president's future:

otar:

A [full stop] in the Yushchenko theme: .

cytadel:

It's up to him. [Yanukovych] recovered from [the 2004 election] like Phoenix, even though [no one then expected him to]. So let him [Yushchenko] now show "the role of an individual in history."

[...]

otar:

[...] During the re-vote of the second round of the 2004 election, Yanukovych received 44.2% of the votes. In some regions he had over 90% of support. To "recover" from such a result is somewhat easier than from Yushchenko's 5-6%.

[...]

fistashok:

Each one is the maker of one's own happiness, so, with all due respect, there's no point feeling sorry for Mr. President. We should feel sorry for ourselves, because of [having to chose in the election when there is no choice].

LJ user shorec quoted a Russian online media piece (RUS) that claimed that Yushchenko was preparing to emigrate to Canada following the election and had already started to evacuate his antique items and other property to Toronto. The blogger wrote (RUS):

He won't go away right after the election, because [the parliamentary election is right around the corner].

[...]

Even with his [world record result] [of losing votes], Yushchenko is still quite capable of making it into parliament with a party and have a faction there with some 30-35 MPs.

Subsequently, parliamentary immunity and an ability to trade votes on important issues will secure him a peaceful and affluent old age.

LJ user chapaye quoted (UKR) another view on the post-election opportunities available to Yushchenko, posted by user roman (UKR) at infoporn.org.ua, a political and social news and opinion portal:

[...] If [Yushchenko] fails to get himself settled here, he'll go to the United States to do lectures on democracy. [...]

On his own blog, LJ user otar wrote this about the outcome of the first round of the election (UKR):

Ukraine has made a totally predictable choice. Why it happened this way - we can spend a long time discussing it, but let's not, and instead let's just agree that we deserve it. [...]

LJ user grebeniuk did a survey of sorts on the eve of the election, eavesdropping on and talking to "young people." He shared his findings in this post in the ua_politika LJ community.

[...] A couple of typical opinions as examples:

1) A guy is trying to prove to his mother that Tymoshenko is bad. His argument: "Yulia came and the crisis and unemployment started."

2) I especially liked how a young CD vendor answered my question, "And who are you for?"
HE: "For [Tihipko]. He's a [handsome man].
I ask him, "Is this all?"
HE: "No, it has nothing to do with orientation, he is also a [beautiful] politician... And Yulia is [beautiful] too and she talks [well]."

Dead serious. [...] Deep analysis.

[...] This is how people are choosing. Such an approach to the [election that happens] once every five years - it gives hope, doesn't it? :)))

And political advisers, marketing and advertising specialists don't even have to bother! Comb your candidate, do the makeup, and go ahead! It's funny and sad :). [...]

Tihipko is now one of the former candidates whose votes both Tymoshenko and Yanukovych hope to pick up in the runoff. Within minutes after the polling stations had closed down on Jan. 17, LJ user roman_sharp looked at the results of the four exit polls and commented (RUS) that "all Yanukovych has got to do is offer Tihipko the post of prime minister." On Jan. 20, Tymoshenko did just that.

LJ user kireev - Aleksandr Kireev, founder of the bilingual Electoral Geography website - has a steady flow of blog posts about the Ukrainian election and its geography, and there is also a special page on Ukraine's elections since 1991 on his website, as well as a section devoted to the current election (ENG). Below is what he wrote (RUS) about Tihipko's phenomenon on his blog:

Tihipko's success once again made me ask the question that I had already asked in conversations many times before: how could they have [missed] a ready-made presidential candidate in 2004? [...] It's just that I'm still surprised that choosing between two people, one of whom is clearly a good public politician, energetic, with a presidential character, behavior, speech and even the looks, while the other one lacks [all of it], they managed to choose the latter. Even the demographic characteristics of those who voted for Tihipko show that he would have been a much more inconvenient rival for Yushchenko than Yanukovych: he attracts votes of the more centrist, urban, educated, young electorate, and doesn't repel [voters in Ukraine's central] and even [western regions]. But they decided that it would do the way it was and were punished for this mistake.

LJ user shorec re-posted LJ user igordudnik's map of regional distribution of this election's runners-up (a slightly updated map is here), and wrote (RUS):

You can see that most of Serhiy Tihipko's voters are based in the regions that traditionally vote for Yanukovych. Thus, the transition of the majority of this electorate to Yulia Tymoshenko is highly unlikely. Approximately one third of them will vote for Yanukovych in the second round.

It is possible that many will not show up for the election. Tihipko's Volyn [region's] electorate and Ukraine's [central regions] might vote for Tymoshenko. Thus, Tihipko's voters will not have impact on the elimination of the gap of votes [between Tymoshenko and Yanukovych].

LJ user kotyhoroshko was confident (UKR) of Yanukovych's defeat in the runoff; in response to LJ user otar, who wasn't so sure, he wrote

What I count on is that the orange electorate will at least have a choice of "voting against [Yanukovych]" after "the absence of choice" in the first round.

That's why I count on a bigger turnout, as well as on a consolidated position :)

Ukraine: Victor Yushchenko's Popularity Waning

Global Voices Online
Sunday, February 8, 2009

According to a poll carried out last month, Ukraine's president Victor Yushchenko "would have won less than 2.9% of the vote if the presidential elections were held in late December 2008 or early January 2009." Among reasons for such low approval ratings is "the relentless infighting" between the president and PM Yulia Tymoshenko.

On Feb. 5, Tymoshenko's cabinet survived a no-confidence vote in parliament: the motion won 203 votes in the 450-seat assembly; a minimum of 226 votes is required for a motion to pass. LEvko of Foreign Notes wrote this about the implications of the vote for the president and his political allies:

Only 10 [NUNS] deputies supported a [PoR]-sponsored no confidence motion in the Tymoshenko-led government in the Ukrainian parliament today. Amongst the 10 were presidential secretariat head Viktor Baloha's 'Yedyniy Tsentr' group, and Yushchenko's brother Petro.

The numbers are very bad news for the president. The pro-presidential NUNS entered the current parliament with 72 deputies in Autumn 2007. With an ever-receding power base, the chances of a second presidential term for Yushchenko are almost nil. [...]

Also on Feb. 5, LJ user kotyhoroshko wrote this (UKR) about the president:

A way out for the country

Yushchenko now has a historically ideal opportunity to resign.

His resignation will partly solve the political crisis.

He will avoid the unnecessary trouble related to the [upcoming presidential] election campaign.

He will not drown in the [fecal matter of discrediting information on him].

Perhaps, in some 20 years, he will be remembered as not the worst president. People's memory is short.

Below are some of the comments to this post (UKR):

marmuletka:

Unfortunately, Yushchenko isn't reading your LJ [blog].

***

ukrainietis:

He will be idolized again not in 20 years but in two or three years. Because those who will replace him will most likely be [extremely inadequate]...

***

gonchar73:

The problem is that Yushchenko's orbit is comprised of those who are profiteering from their proximity to the president. It's them who are holding him by the throat, singing panegyrics to him and are assuring him with foam at their mouths that [he] hasn't fulfilled his mission yet. And this is why Yushchenko's circle will not allow this to happen. But I agree - it's a very good time to at least declare this: "I'm not going to run for a second term and I will not create obstacles for the government until the end of this term. But from now on, all responsibility for the state of things is exclusively on [the government]."

***

irishhighlander:

The best option is this: let these non-traditionally gifted people collectively lead the country to default. And then leave. All of them - Yushchenko, and Tymoshenko, and [Yanukovych], and the whole [parliament]. And even better - a collective hara-kiri.

Ukraine: Maidan, Again, Sort Of

Global Voices Online
Saturday, July 22, 2006


Kyiv, Independence Square: "President Kuchma - shame, Yushchenko - the nation's disappointment. Moroz - betrayed the Maidan!" - by Veronica Khokhlova

Nearly two years after the Orange Revolution, there are tents at Kyiv's Independence Square (Maidan Nezalezhnosti) again. The camp isn't big, and it looks dormant for now, but as Ukrainian politicians continue to keep the country in limbo, this summer's Maidan seems to be waiting to happen. Or not. (After all the broken promises and mismatched alliances of the past four months, it's not realistic to regard anything as a certainty now.) A just-in-case Maidan.

When Oleksandr Moroz, Socialist leader and the newly elected speaker, deserted the so-called Orange Coalition for the so-called Anti-Crisis Coalition, Ukraine's blogosphere reacted with a tiny virtual Maidan of its own: LJ user kotyhoroshko posted phone numbers of all regional offices of the Socialist Party and invited fellow-bloggers to contact them. Below is the translation of the initiative (UKR) and some responses to it:

You have a fantastic opportunity to call the Socialist Party of Ukraine regional headquarters and ask why "Moroz has [betrayed] us." Also, it seems reasonable to ask if they feel comfortable working for the head of the party who has betrayed the Ukrainian people.

[A list of phone numbers and other contact info is omitted from the translation.]

***

viktoza: I called this number: (044) 573-58-97. Told them: I'm Victor ..., I voted for the Socialist Party in this election, and now I do not understand the actions of your faction. We stood together at Maidan against [Yanukovych], and now suddenly you become his allies. I think you've betrayed me.

A Socialist woman replied: "This is what it looks like at first only, that we've betrayed you. In reality, though, you have to know who truly cares about Ukraine. If someone's guilty of what's going on now, it's the president." And then she hung up.

[...]

In the Kyiv City Committee, I've been told that all the Orange ones are to blame. If they had nominated Moroz instead of [Poroshenko], everything would've been OK. But she couldn't answer the question about why Moroz was kissing with Yanukovych and Kivalov [head of the Central Election Committee in 2004], the men he used to call bandits.

I told her, "You are traitors all the same, and I won't vote for you anymore." That was the end of our conversation.

[...]

067_33_44_55_6: I don't think it'll work, but I'm writing letters in which I let them know that they can cross me out of the Socialist Party voters list and I'm also wishing them success in further political intriguing.

kotyhoroshko: Letters are being read by their [computer network] administrators. Making phone calls to them, on the other hand, is fun. You'll enjoy it a lot.

Not everyone is feeling so upbeat and being so proactive, however (RUS, LJ user lucysd):

orange juice

I'm reading today's news and feel the world collapsing. The world that we seemed to have created two years ago.

[Victor Yushchenko's Our Ukraine] is in the opposition, Pora lies by the [Parliament's] door, [Yulia Tymoshenko's Bloc] is blocking all they can and cannot, but is it going to help in any way?

Yanukovych will be the prime minister. The rest will follow. Kalashnikov [parliamentarian from Victor Yanukovych's Party of the Regions, assaulted a TV crew recently] will head the Freedom of Speech Committee. [Yulia Tymoshenko's Bloc] will continue to block everything and everyone.

Russia will lower gas prices for us, potato prices will be lowered focibly, pensioners will get a pension raise that will last one month. Everyone will be happy.

My Russian friends will say gleefully: "We did tell you!"

And NATO isn't taking us anymore, anyway, and no one's relaxing visa regime for Ukrainians.

Finita la comedia.

?

***

yurr: finita.

I'm probably not even going to vote in the next election - there's no use.

And if they lay themselves underneath [Moscow], I'd even think about where to leave for. Because I love this country, but I hate this state.

rgmss: [...] Actually, all this was showing through.

When we were standing and freezing there [at Maidan in 2004], everything was right. But right afterwards it all began to fall apart. When "they" [representatives of the former regime] were all interrogated and then let go... it became clear then.

This country needs [Pinochet]. For five years, no longer... just to purge the ranks.

983: Then all the Medvedchuks [representatives of the former regime] will quickly change their last names to Pinochet. And then they'll purge so much, the only thing left to do would be pray to the photo of Leonid Brezhnev...

And since the situation is ugly enough, there are jokes, of course.

Abdymok translates one - all but the punchline - that he was told during a recent visit to a Ukrainian village:

[...] this is the simplified version. there’s another, infinitely more colorful, one featuring tymoshenko, but too much would be lost in translation.

three famous ukrainian men, volodymyr klichko, andrey shevchenko, and president viktor yushchenko are pushing baby strollers in the park.

klichko starts contemplating the future of his progeny out loud.

“take a look at his jaw and big fists,” klichko says. “he has all the makings of good boxer.”

shevchenko then beckons the men to examine his baby boy, who is thrashing about with his legs. “my son will probably become a world-class soccer player,” he says.

both men turn to the president and ask, “what future awaits your son?”

yushchenko bends over slowly and sticks his head the stroller.

after straightening up, the president turns to the men and replies: “обосрался. молчит.”

The punchline goes something like this (RUS):

"He's shat himself and is silent now."