Central & Eastern Europe: Initial Reactions to WikiLeaks' Cablegate

Global Voices Online
Tuesday, November 30, 2010

While other regions feature a lot more prominently in the collection of U.S. embassy cables published by WikiLeaks thus far, a few countries of the CEE region do appear in the kickoff edition of Cablegate.

Below is a small selection of initial reactions from the region's bloggers.

Piran Café, a Slovenian blog, announced the Cablegate "winner" from the Balkans:

Croatia, apparently.

Of the 251,287 secret US Embassy cables which Wikileaks began making public yesterday, 2,053 relate to Croatia, according to the ‘Cables by Country‘ graphic on Wikileaks Cablegate website. [...]

The Balkan "runners-up" are:

Bosnia & Hercegovina is next at 1,419, followed by Serbia & Montenegro, with 1,244. Slovenia comes in a distant fourth with 947, with Macedonia (783) and Montenegro (503) bringing up the rear. [...]

Although no Slovenia-related documents have been published yet, the country - along with the Pacific island of Kiribati - is in the media spotlight of sorts already, due to the Guantanamo Bay prisoner release situation:

[...] Advance material supplied to The Guardian, Der Speigel, Le Monde, and The New York Times included in passing a mention of a strongarm deal the US offered to Slovenia. Most of the accounts went something like this:

The (New York Times) also cited documents showing the U.S. used hardline tactics to win approval from countries to accept freed detainees from Guantanamo Bay. It said Slovenia was told to take a prisoner if its president wanted to meet with President Barack Obama and said the Pacific island of Kiribati was offered millions of dollars to take in a group of detainees.

Milan Balažic, spokesperson for Slovenia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, denied that any such deal making transpired, insisting that Slovenia cannot accept Guantanamo detainees on legal grounds and that PM Borut Pahor does still have a visit to the US scheduled for next year. The statement I read didn’t specifically say however, that Pahor would be meeting with Obama. [...]

Viktor Markovic of Belgraded.com provided a brief overview of the files that mention Kosovo, noting on Twitter that he "got 1k hits on this post in the first couple of hrs [...] seems everyone is searching for dirty secrets":

[...] The first interesting bit relates to comments on Kosovo government and their dissatisfaction with the EULEX-Serbia cooperation, but also the EU diplomat’s dissatisfaction with Serbian MFA Vuk Jeremic:

[Elysee Diplomatic Advisor Jean-David] Levitte noted that the EULEX mission is having diplomatic problems with the Kosovar government and public after signing two technical protocols with Serbia. They are hoping to ensure continued calm as Kosovo heads into municipal elections. [Assistant Secretary Philip H.] Gordon stated that the Kosovars will have to accept the protocols but that it should be clearly explained that these are technical agreements that have no impact on Kosovo’s independent status. Levitte also criticized Serbian FM Jeremic, saying that he is doing nothing to encourage Serb return or participation in Kosovo’s government. Levitte noted that Jeremic “makes big promises” every time he comes to France, but doesn’t follow through. Levitte no longer meets with him and does not consider him to be the “modern face of Belgrade” that he purports to be. [...]

Guistino, the Estonia-based author of Itching for Eestimaa, mockingly complains that the people behind WikiLeaks "haven't caught on yet that Estonia is the center of the universe":

I keep checking WikiLeaks for the horde of secret diplomatic cables out of the US Embassy in Tallinn. "Local demagogue known for shady real estate dealings!" "Wealthy chocolatier may have connections to organized crime!"

No such luck. [...]

This week, the group seeks to release 251,287 leaked US embassy cables, 610 of which are out of Estonia, though they aren't up yet. [...]

On a more serious note, Guistino criticizes WikiLeaks' U.S.-centric approach:

[...] While I am, like everybody, keen to learn more about US policy, I would also appreciate if WikiLeaks provided more information on other countries. Because of its access to those cables, global interest, plus perhaps the prevalance of English, the bulk of the material seems to be about the US. As an American, I have to say, not fair! An international media organization should provide more content than that. In other words, where are the confidential Russian cables, Julian? We in Estonia await more.

Robert Amsterdam, a lawyer who is part of the legal team representing Mikhail Khodorkovsky, wrote this about the Russian segment of Cablegate:

It's no wonder why the FSB vaguely threatened to assassinate Wikileaks founder Julian Assange. In just the first wave of confidential diplomatic cables released yesterday, we get the opportunity to [see] how officials of the U.S. government really felt about relations with their new partners in Russia, underscoring the profound cynicism of Obama's reset policy. And apparently, there is much more to come once Wikileaks taps its Russian archives.

Apart from a near total obsession with Russia only through the prism of Iran, the wires also reveal a specifically detailed awareness of Russia's democratic unraveling, which contrasts sharply with the president's positive statements on the relationship. Vladimir Putin is described as the "Alpha Dog" of a "vitrual mafia state," while Dmitry Medvedev "plays Robin to Putin's Batman." [...]

Reactions of the Russophone Twitter users are quite diverse.

@sergey_gaber is optimistic (RUS):

WikiLeaks, by the way. Here, folks, it seems as if the blessed time has come when no one is afraid of anyone. It is wonderful.

@kushnir72 is apprehensive (RUS):

This whole WikiLeaks story will result in the Internet getting banned :)

@GlazTV doesn't seem to have enough trust (RUS) in the Cablegate files - because Julian Assange, editor-in-chief and spokesperson for WikiLeaks, hasn't been silenced yet:

One thing I don't understand is how come the fellow who created WikiLeaks and who's giving the US some really hard time, is still alive and at large??? It's giving me some strange thoughts...

Finally, @yasviridov posted this item, which has so far been re-tweeted by at least 20 people:

Damn! My real 5th-grade geometry grades have surfaced on WikiLeaks. If Mom finds out, she'll kill me!

Estonia: Deportations, Artificial Hills, Gray Passports, and Layoffs

Global Voices Online
Friday, December 19, 2008

Below is a selection of some recent posts from the Estonian blogosphere.

Itching for Eestimaa writes about Estonian women who survived the deportations of the 1940s, but whose tragic stories never found a reflection in the Soviet-time Estonian women's magazine, Nõukogude Naine:

[...] These women are no different than the young women of today, except life dealt them unfortunate circumstances that they ultimately had to digest and live with.

Why did they get the booty end of the stick? Why did they, of all people, have to travel to Siberia via cattle car, their families broken, their property confiscated, their health imperiled, only to come home to a fresh issue of Nõukogude Naine that made no mention of their very immediate history? [...]

In another post, Itching for Eestimaa writes about the town of Kohtla-Järve:

[...] In the Estonian psyche, [...] Kohtla-Järve is one of these Soviet labyrinths of apartment blocks, poverty, and Russophones, where if you ask for milk in the store in Estonian, you might get carbonated water or eggs. Since there are no water parks or medieval buildings, it is undeserving of a visit, and so nobody goes. [...]

Blue, Black and White Alert examines whether it's possible to turn artificial hills that are "the byproduct of oil shale mining" into ski resorts:

[...] Of course, if you consider that oil shale mining has been going on for more than 50 years, and then you consider how the ash is currently deposited -- scattered in a number of 100m hills, including one "mountain range" -- and that in turn that ash has ceased to be deposited at the top of the hill but only at the base -- it seems inexcusable, doesn't it? If we had focused on one hill, Estonia could already have a ski resort, not to a mention a landmark. One more bone to pick with the Russians at the reparations summit.

BabelTallinn writes about Estonia's ethnic Russians, many of whom hold "gray" passports of the stateless persons and seem happy about it:

[...] At Molly Malone’s pub in Tallinn’s old town, Ruslana doesn’t want her picture taken. ‘I still have a grey passport because it’s comfortable,’ begins the 24-year-old Russian flamenco dancer, who has a white complexion and pink-varnished nails. 116,000 people currently have a ‘grey’ passport, meaning they are stateless. They cannot receive a ‘blue’ passport unless they pass a language exam and another testing their knowledge on the constitution. ‘The Schengen zone has been open to stateless people for a year, so I can travel to EU countries and Russia without a visa,’ says Ruslana. With neither bank nor life insurance troubles, she feels ‘good with grey. I’ve spent my whole my life in Estonia, and speak Estonian when I have to.’ [...]

In another post, BabelTallinn writes about Estonian Air's plans to lay off 63 of its 467 employees.

AnTyx reports that "[a]fter months of infighting and mutual accusations, the parliament has finally passed the new labour bill":

[...] The upshot is that companies will have an easier time getting rid of unproductive or unnecessary workers, while employees will generally have more financial stability after getting canned.

[...]

Unlike the controversial French laws, this one isn't so much intended to give companies the confidence to hire new staff, as allow them to restructure and increase the efficiency of their process. This has been the principal complaint about the Estonian workforce - that its salary expectations had been growing out of sync with rises in productivity. The other problem was the sheer lack of manpower in key areas; so in the context of the financial crisis, this legislation does at least seem like a step in the right direction. It places additional demands on the budget, but it actually gives both employers and employees more confidence in the areas that count, while encouraging people to improve their skills and efficiency. [...]

Central & Eastern Europe: Trademark on ;-) and Other Internet News

Global Voices Online
Thursday, December 18, 2008

Below is a selection of recent posts by bloggers from around Central and Eastern Europe on social networking, participatory media, online activism and other related issues.

Eternal Remont writes about Russian businessman Oleg Teterin, who claims to have trademarked the ;-) emoticon:

[...] Seeing that the Russian patent agency will grant a trademark for just about anything these days, Eternal Remont is attempting to trademark "Oleg Teterin," (trademark pending) and will expect payment whenever anyone speaks, writes, prints, or otherwise uses this phrase in all media known to humanity, existing or future. [...]

Streetwise Professor has chosen a different approach:

[...] To Mr. Teterin, I say: ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-)

So sue me.

Russian Blog writes about the Russian Facebook look-alike, vkontakte.ru - which, among other things, appears to be a good language learning tool:

When learning a foreign language communication is crucial. [...] I tell my Russian students of Swedish to join Swedish online communities, and the same advice goes for you who are studying Russian - join a Russian online community! Not only will you find lots of interesting (or uninteresting) clubs as well as people, or be able write to strangers from one sixth of the Earth’s ground (that’s just how big a country this is), but for those of you who are only beginning to study Russian joining in itself will be a challenge. After all - one must join in Russian. [...] There’s a Russian version of Facebook, though it’s completely independent, and in no way connected to Facebook, except for one thing - it is an almost exact copy of the way Facebook used to look before (the old Facebook), translated into Russian. [...]

Siberian Light interviews Dmitry, the owner and manager of Expatriates.ru, a new social networking site with fast-growing membership:

[...] What inspired you to develop expatriates.ru?

During my studies abroad many people asked me a lot of questions about Russia. I decided to create a community where all people will find the answers to their questions about Russia and where they can talk and discuss issues related to Russia. [...]

Siberian Light also discusses some of the challenges that a blogger writing on sensitive geopolitical issues - in this case, Russia - often has to deal with:

[...] Over the past few months, I’ve written posts that have both criticised and praised Russia. I write them because I think that Russia is often right, although it’s also far too often wrong.

And, far too often, I take crap from people. Usually because of what they think I have said, in the context of their tiny little world views, rather than what I have actually said, in the context of an entire blog post, or a series of posts. [...]

Gray Falcon, a blogger focusing on the Balkans, seems to share Siberian Light's frustration:

It has been almost ten years since I started publishing commentary on-line, and it never ceases to amaze me that people seem to possess a remarkable capacity of completely missing the point of entire articles to zero in on one particular sentence or phrase and make a huge deal of it.

[...]

Look, I'm routinely attacked by Albanians because I'm a Serb (it doesn't matter what I say, really - unless I endorse the KLA somehow; then I'm a poster child for what needs to be done). I get grief from Greeks, because I dare say "Macedonia" instead of FYROM or what have you (look, Alexander was a barbarian, OK? Just because he embraced the culture of Hellas and spread it around the known world doesn't make him any more Greek than my Orthodox faith makes me one).

And now I'm marked for malice by Macedonians for daring to point out that hey, today's Macedonia exists within the boundaries of the territory liberated from the Ottoman Empire by the Kingdom of Serbia. [...]

Belgraded writes about the Facebook group celebrating the 1995 Srebrenica massacre (the group is now closed; an earlier GV text on it by Sinisa Boljanovic is here):

[...] What struck me as interesting is that the vast majority of members were not even born when the Yugoslavia breakup wars started and were still in pre-school when it all ended. So where do they get their ‘knowledge’ and information about the past from? Who makes the biggest influence on how they see the past – their parents, media, their friends, the whole society?

[...]

There are no similar hate groups in English, presumably because the facebook admins can react swiftly if they can understand what some group is all about without waiting for numerous people to hit the ‘report’ button and translate ‘Ubij [insert nationality here]’ for them. I know also some would like to blame facebook and other social media for making hate speech so available, but remember – it’s not guns that kill people.

I guess that facebook is still not considered to be so influential or important by mainstream media, at least not in the Balkans. All this despite the fact that both Serbia and Croatia have around 170.ooo members on facebook each, a respectable number which is only going to grow in the future, with Bosnia lagging behind with about 50.000 members. Despite the fact that it’s mostly teenagers. Despite the fact that members post things under their full names with their photos attached – without having any fear or feeling no responsibility that the things they are posting could be dangerous and are wrong. [...]

In another post, Belgraded welcomes a new arrival on Serbia's online magazine scene:

White City magazine is "Belgrade’s first English-language domestic urban magazine. It is written entirely in English, entirely by local Serbian writers for a Serbian readership." Check it out - it looks good, the articles are very well written, hopefully it will survive in this tough competition.

Scraps of Moscow reviews some of the new arrivals in "Moldovasphere":

Moldovaphiles should check out this new website, Moldovarious, which has been set up by a couple of Austrians. Curiously, the guys behind another interesting project related to Moldova (well, related to the PMR) profiled here are also Austrian.

[...]

And, via barabanch, I learned of another newly launched project, this one initiated by Moldovans and called ThinkMoldova (also available in English) [...].

One of the people involved in the project is Barabanov's wife and fellow New Times journalist Natalia Morari. [...]

Hungarian Spectrum writes about the blog of the Hungarian PM Ferenc Gyurcsány:

[...] Quite a few Hungarian politicians decided at one time or another to write a blog but after a few days, or at most after a few weeks, they gave up the ghost. Ferenc Gyurcsány is an exception. He began writing a blog about two and a half years ago, just before the 2006 elections. [...] Even in the midst of a grueling campaign the Hungarian prime minister wrote his blog practically every weekday. Moreover, he didn't stop after the election that he managed to win practically single-handedly. [...] I think one reason that he didn't stop is that the readers of the blog were so enthusiastic and so supportive that he felt it his duty not to disappoint the team that supported him with words and deeds. Eventually Gyurcsány and his readers organized personal meetings where people revealed their pseudonyms, where they met each other as well as the prime minister. The fact is that he is a good blog writer. His notes are interesting. Very often he reveals government plans that the readers of the blog are the first to know. By now the members of the media visit the blog every morning to see what's going on in Gyurcsány's head. [...]

Meglena Kuneva - a Bulgarian politician, the European consumer affairs commissioner, and a blogger - writes this about "the realities of cross-border e-commerce for consumers in Europe":

Some of you have complained through this blog that you cannot buy over the internet from certain stores located in other EU countries. I share your frustration. The Internet has the potential to bring the single European market to a whole new level, and to provide consumers with the chance to buy the very best that is on offer within the EU in terms of choice, price and quality.

But the fact is that although a third of EU citizens already shop on the internet, only 7% shop online from other Member States than their own. [...]

Cyrus Farivar writes this about Estonia's advanced voting practices:

The Estonian parliament [...] has just approved a bill to let Estonian citizens vote via their mobile phone. This makes the country the first country in the world to do so, and comes about 20 months after Estonia held its first nation-wide election where the electorate could cast their ballots online.

[...]

Update (Dec 17.): I spoke with Silver Meikar, an Estonian MP, who told me that this actually isn’t quite mobile phone voting. In fact, this is using Estonia’s digital ID card infrastructure to use your phone as an ID tool instead of your ID card and reader. You still need a computer and an Internet connection to vote online, but you now can just have your phone instead of your ID card. So, not as sexy. [...]

Window on Eurasia reports on what appears to be a move in the opposite direction for Russia:

In the name of fighting extremism, a group of United Russia Duma deputies has proposed new legislation that would allow the government to impose sanctions on those who distribute what Moscow believes are “extremist” materials via the Internet and to close down the sites they post them on.

[...]

And even though the nature of the world wide web is such that Russian government efforts in this area are unlikely to be fully effective, such moves against what many consider to be the last free media space in Russia represent a further act of intimidation by Vladimir Putin and his associates against the embattled members of civil society in that country. [...]

In Latvia, too, the state seems to be taking a proactive approach in its dealings with the online world. Free Speech Emergency in Latvia wrote this last week:

According to unconfirmed reports, the Latvian Security Police have detained Valdis Rošāns, a self-proclaimed neo-Nazi who has been writing his views extensively on the internet (in Latvian) using the nickname FENIKSS.

[...]

By harassing a young neo-Nazi crackpot, the Security Police may be trying to restore their image after their detention of economist Dmitrijs Smirnovs and questioning of musician Valters Frīdenbergs. This caused an international uproar.

I don't think too many people will rally around Valdis Rošāns, but his case should be put on the record. [...]

Earlier this month, Aleks Tapinsh of All About Latvia wrote on GV about Dmitrijs Smirnovs' case and the economic crisis dimension of the freedom of speech situation in Latvia. On his blog, he posted a picture of a t-shirt featuring a mock message to the Latvian security police:

Notice to the security police: I admit that yesterday I withdrew money from my bank. Please don’t arrest me. I did it to buy milk and bread, and not to destabilize Latvia’s financial system.

Central & Eastern Europe: Financial Crisis

Global Voices Online
Thursday, October 16, 2008

Below is a roundup of reactions from the Anglophone blogosphere on the ongoing financial crisis in some of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe.

Hungary

Antal Dániel of Central Europe Activ wrote this on Oct. 13:

After major banks and insurance corporations were bailed out by European government, Hungary has become the first member state of the EU the receive a bailout offer from IMF with the support of EU’s Ecofin. Hungary looks to be the most fragile member of the Union in the global financial crisis. [...]

The Hungarian blogger believes that "the current economic situation is a result of a political crisis":

[...] In the 2002 election campaign, both the then-ruling centre-right and the centre-left campaigned with the promise to give back more to the people from Hungary’s economic success between 1989 and 2002. The two major parties, right-wing Fidesz and the Socialist Party have outbid each other with spending promises and tax-cut promises. [...] The Socialist Party has kept much of its incredible promises, driving up budget deficit to a 10% record. Sadly, a similar bidding came in the 2006 elections that the Socialists won narrowly. The Socialist Partly leader, Mr. Gyurcsány has admitted afterwards that his party lied to the voters, which made his later austerity measures rather unwelcome by the Hungarian people. [...]

To overcome the crisis, Dániel concludes, "Hungarian voters [...] will have to force their major parties into more rational public finance promises and policies."

Eva Balogh of Hungarian Spectrum wrote this about the Hungarian opposition's inadequate response to the crisis:

[...] Let's start with the leaders of SZDSZ. Once again, they seem to be out of touch. [...] They talk as if the Hungarian government's most important task would be "reforms." Reforms that ended, according to them. And therefore, isn't it wonderful that they left the coalition? As if today, mid-October 2008, when the whole financial world is teetering on the brink of collapse these so-called reforms will make or break Hungary. [...] Meanwhile, these petty squabbles weaken the government's efforts to keep the country's economy in balance and avoid panic. It's important to pass the budget and move on. Because there's going to be a lot of hard work ahead.

Then there is Fidesz's chief, [Viktor Orbán]. He tried to explain to a group of important business leaders yesterday that Hungary's economic problems would be solved within three months if there were early elections and he became prime minister. He would turn the economy around. Alone, in Hungary. Of course, the problem is that in a global economy no country is an island. One way or another Hungary will be affected. Less so on the front lines than some other European countries because Hungary's banks are not awash in toxic paper and Hungary was not the favorite destination of currency traders and hedge funds. But the first signs are already here. Opel's sales are down, so the Hungarian Opel factory will be closed "for a while." However, Orbán claims that his economic team is ready with all the answers: drastic tax cuts, less bureaucratic handling of tax collection, decrease of bureaucracy and corruption, a smaller parliament, well organized public administration, and better handling of finances. Laughable? No, under the current circumstances this small-mindedness shows a lack of vision.

What is even more worrisome is that Viktor Orbán thinks in black and white when it comes to the root of the current crisis. He is certain that "liberal economic policy" is the cause of the problem and he spoke enthusiastically about those countries where democracy is not exactly in full bloom: China, Russia, some of the Islamic countries. Those are the successful ones, not the liberal democracies in the West. [...]

In a follow-up post on the Hungarian politicians' response to the financial crisis, Eva Balogh wrote about "a seven-point list of demands" put forward by Fidesz - and PM Ferenc Gyurcsány's "twelve-point plan":

[...] The fact that this twelve-point plan has the blessing of the president of the Hungarian National Bank will certainly give it weight. And it includes most of Fidesz's demands. [...]

Will the plan help ease the fallout of the global financial crisis? Who knows? Real damage has been done to the credit markets, and there will undoubtedly be a spillover into the global economy. How deep, how long is anybody's guess.

Edward Hugh of Hungary Economy Watch explained "why Hungary is not the next Iceland":

[...] The longer term financial and economic future of Iceland is rosy, once they weather the present storm, and learn some belated lessons. I wish I could say the same about Hungary. [...]

[...] Iceland is a young country, almost reproducing itself in terms of children, and with a rapidly expanding population of working age. Hungary on the other hand is a comparatively old country, with a rapidly ageing population, where each generation is about two thirds of the size of the previous one, and where the potential workforce and total population are now in long term decline.

This is why Iceland - even though it has gone to a huge excess - can sustain a much higher level of "leveraging" into the future than Hungary can, and why in the longer term Iceland is certainly no Hungary. I do not say any of this to criticise Hungary, or its citizens, but really out of a deep seated concern about the future of a country that I do care about. [...]

At A Fistful of Euros, Edward Hugh wrote about the International Monetary Fund's "readiness to offer financial and technical help to Hungary":

[...] The EU has said it welcomes the intervention. Under the circumstances there really was little else it could do. This would now appear to set a precedent, and the Hungarian case may well be followed by the Baltics, Bulgaria and Romania in pretty short order I would say, looking at the speed with which things are happening. [...]

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania

One day later, Edward Hugh continued his "IMF receivership" roll call at A Fistful of Euros:

[...] Meantime a growing number of countries now seem to be at risk of following Iceland and Hungary into the arms of the IMF, with the Baltic republics of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania now looking particularly vulnerable, according to a warning from the International Monetary Fund itself yesterday.

[...]

In my view the threat to the Baltic financial systems is real, as is the threat to the Bulgarian and Romanian ones. Action, of some form or another needs to be taken, and soon. Latvia and Estonia are now in deep recessions, and Lithuania, while still clinging on to growth, can’t be far behind. Basically it is hard to see any revival in domestic demand in the immediate future, which means these countries now need to live from exports. But with the very high inflation they have had it is hard to see how they can restore competitiveness while retaining their currency pegs to the euro. [...] So better get it over and done with now I would say, and take advantage of the shelter offered in the arms of the IMF. [...]

At Latvia Economy Watch, Claus Vistesen provided a thorough analysis of the situation in the Baltic states:

[...] But while the current crisis is pretty much a generalised global one, if there is one region where the crisis is making its presence more acutely than elsewhere, that place is Eastern Europe, and among the ranks of the regional casualties high on the list come the three Baltics countries, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. That this is the case should not really strike us as so strange. On many occasions since the credit crisis went global back in the summer of 2007 many analysts (including yours truly) have been flagging the risk of a hard landing in Eastern Europe. This unfortunate situation has now by and large materialised and the only question which really arises is how hard is "hard" going to be? A couple of recent tentative signs suggest that the big eye of the credit crunch, not unlike Sauron with his glance toward Frodo et al., is fixing Eastern Europe fast in its gaze.

[...]

Ultimately however the immediate challenge for the Baltics at this point in time is damage control and more specifically how to wriggle themselves out of the current vice of dependence on credit inflows at the same time as the economy needs to restore competitiveness. [...]

[...] What is critical for the Baltics at this point is consequently that the current economic downturn is managed in such a way to minimize the risk of a collapse of the financial system as foreign banks shut down operations. Whether this entails the maintaining of the Euro peg is a difficult question to answer. One thing is pretty certain however and this is that the kind of wage and price deflation needed to correct the imbalance would be a disaster for any political leadership.

Of the three economies Latvia clearly seems to be the most vulnerable to a rout, and given the proximity of the economies sudden unexpected events in one country could easily spread to the others. Here is to hoping that it does not come to that. [...]

Ukraine

Next on the "growing list of Eastern European countries" lining up for IMF's support is Ukraine (see this Oct. 14 post at A Fistful of Euros).

As Edward Hugh pointed out in his earlier in-depth review of the political, social and economic situation in the country, Ukraine "is far from being alone in having banking, stock market and credit crunch problems at this point in time (but here, of course, there is no strength or consolation to be found in company)." Below are some of the more general points from Hugh's post:

[...] The current events in Ukraine may well take some observers by surprise, since the general impression has been that the economic performance has been solid and GDP growth has been strong in recent years, and this has given the impression that the underlying reality was sound, which it basically hasn’t been. The country has been bedevilled by constant infighting, while at the same time a combination of strong migration of Ukraine workers to external destinations and very long term low fertility has meant that the country endemically suffers from acute labour shortages as the population both ages and declines comparatively rapidly. Hence, in my view, the absurdly high levels of inflation we have been seeing.

Nevertheless, real GDP has grown by 7.5 percent a year on average since 2000, in line with other CIS countries, and indeed that rate has been higher than in most other transition economies: whether or not this growth was built on sand is what we are now all about to find out. [...]

Peter Byrne of Abdymok began his post on the current "banking mess" in Ukraine with this piece of street wisdom (RUS): "Decent people in Kyiv always have cash on them." He continued:

[...] [National Bank of Ukraine] chief vololdymyr stelmakh said on oct. 10 that it will take at least two weeks to calm the situation in ukraine’s finance and banking sectors.

fat chance. [...]

Serbia

Finally, there is Serbia on the list of "those in the IMF sick ward." Here's yet another one of Edward Hugh's explanations at A Fistful of Euros:

[...] So, to be clear, Serbia is not an “emergency case”, like Hungary for example - although it should be noted that the Hungarian government are stating that they are not an emergency case like Iceland, who are themselves not an emergency case, like Ukraine, for example, who are in no way to be considered as being in need of support in the way in which, let us say, Latvia is. And Latvia according to Prime Minister Ivars Godmanis is not any kind of case at all, and certainly not one to be compared with Serbia.

Well, make of all that what you will, but one thing is for sure, and that is that experts from the International Monetary Fund are going to have a role in drafting Serbia’s 2009 budget. [...]

Estonia: On Food (and Peace)

Global Voices Online
Monday, May 7, 2007

The buzz surrounding Tallinn's Bronze Soldier is gradually subsiding, but it is still too early to speak of peace: Estonia's police are preparing for possible unrest on May 9, pro-Kremlin youth groups are still marching in Moscow, and politicians as well as bloggers continue arguing about the situation.

While the previous Global Voices translation dealt with the violent events of April 26, below is a completely amicable entry, written on May 3 by Tallinn-based LJ user orang-m (RUS):

On food

I've been shooting at the Best Estonian Product exhibition today.

While they were all away at the conference hall, I wandered around expo tables laid with food.

We've got some very beautiful and delicious products: grilled sausages with wondrous sauces, and kholodets [jellied meat], and various meat creations, and puddings, and zephir [sweets], and cheese breads, [...], and juices, and marzipans.

When I was done shooting it all, I sat down in the corner on a window sill, chewing on a sausage.

A woman in her 60s, dressed in [Estonian] national dress, came up to me: a consultant on meat products.

We chatted about various tasty recipes.

Then she heard me speaking on the phone, in Russian.

She said: "Look, I'll feed you now. Because they'll all come running here during the break, and there'll be nothing left for you."

She spoke in Russian to me, even though we communicated in Estonian before that.

And - she filled me up with food.

It is really very tasty what we are producing here.

Why am I writing all this.

Any mess begins inside one's head.

When a person sees others as enemies - he is the one who's got problems.

And no doctor is going to help him.

Why is it that I only run into good people, huh?

And here is one of the comments to this post:

ulixes: I keep wanting to write something nice and encouraging to you these days. But it's you who ends up writing encouraging things. Thank you.

[Mir] (both peace and world [these two translations of the Russian word mir are written in English in the original]) is built on this very thing - human relations. One person's attitude toward the other and vice versa, that is :) And suddenly this [world/peace] is crashed with that huge thing called "state politics" - and one starts feeling like a helpless idiot. But then I read your posts and realize that all is okay, the [world/peace] is still there, and so are the relations between people. Take care of yourself, all of you over there.

***

LJ user kocmoc has posted photos from the Bronze Soldier's new location at Tallinn's military cemetery - here.

Estonia: "A Russian Rebellion"

Global Voices Online
Friday, April 27, 2007

As Tallinn seems to have entered the second night of rioting over the removal of a Soviet war memorial, here's a blogger's recap (with photos, RUS, by LJ user mrprophet) of what happened the previous night:

A Russian rebellion

Today I've been to a true Russian rebellion, senseless and relentless.

For those not following the events: Estonian government has decided to begin excavations at the burial site of the Soviet soldiers and the Warrior-Liberator monument at [Tonismagi] Hill in downtown Tallinn today. In the afternoon, the police fenced off the monument and surrounding areas and covered the monument with a non-transparent cloth. Something like this has long been expected, so around 5 pm a predominantly Russian crowd started gathering near the National Library, located right by the monument.

I learned about it around 6 pm, when one of my friends called me. When I arrived at [Tonismagi], 2 to 3 thousand people were already there, chanting "Shame!" and "Fascists!". The crowd was slowly but consistently growing, though the demonstration was extremely unorganized, due to the spontaneity of it all. Most people came to the square after learning about what was taking place from friends, over the phone, on the internet or in forums. Most people were young, but in general the crowd was pretty diverse.

In the meantime, the police cordoned off the whole square with a circle of OMON [riot police]. Nothing was happening for a long time. There were no speeches, people just stood and yelled slogans in defense of the monument to the fallen in the Great Patriotic War. The police and OMON acted calm. I witnessed only a couple of fights, when someone either threw himself on the cordon or something like that. They were using tear gas in response, but it didn't lead to mass aggression. At around 8 pm, the protesters spontaneously blocked [one of the streets adjacent to the square], and in response the police demanded that everyone disperse.

A helicopter was hovering above the crowd, some extra cordon fences were delivered, a water cannon arrived. From the crowd flew bottles, eggs, insults. The police didn't really react to that. No incidents happened while I was there - people, instead, were trying to stand there in an organized manner and to prevent provokers from throwing bottles into the first rows of the crowd. The first rows were comprised of all kinds of folks, from schoolkids to elderly people.

The truly tough stuff started happening around 9 pm. The police must've gotten tired of yelling into their megaphones for the rally to disperse, and OMON moved forward on the protesters. We were being pushed from the crossing near the library quite crudely. They were beating [us] with [rubber] sticks, and washing [us] lavishly with tear gas. Here's when the decisive moment came. The crowd got wild and the real Paris Commune began. The crowd was retreating, but all kinds of things were flying from it toward the police: stones that were ripped from the pavement, garbage containers, street poles. Everybody was yelling, "Fascists!" and "Russia!"

Here was when I decided that my life was more valuable than the lively photography, and so I moved away from the front rows. In front of me, OMON was fighting the retreating crowd. By that time, everyone had already been pushed from the square in front of the monument and OMON had begun using rubber bullets. The crowd ran, then stopped, shattering everything in its way. Ironically, at [Tonismagi] Street, where it was all taking place, there's the HQ of the ruling Reform Party, whose leader is Estonia's prime minister and whose initiative it was to start excavations at the Warrior-Liberator monument.

Finally, the people reached the turn to Parnu Highway (there's a small square there) and blocked the traffic completely. There were no police in this area at all, and so the crowd was overwhelmed by the real thugs. The protesters gone mad blocked all the paths with barricades made of sidewalk fences that they tore out, they started breaking windows, lighting fires and breaking into shops and kiosks. They nearly set on fire one of the houses near the highway, but the cooler heads, fortunately, extinguished the fire soon.

I stood behind this chaos a bit longer and went home. Police sirens became audible to me only when I was already far away from the place where it was all taking place. The police turned out to be absolutely unprepared to what took place after OMON began to push the crowd out. Pogroms went on for 20 more minutes before I left the square, and I'm not sure they've stopped already. The unrest continues.

[photos]

The conclusions offer no consolation, of course. The police started dispersing the demonstration in a rather harsh way for no reason (whether it was needed or not isn't for me to decide), and the demonstration didn't want to be dispersed, so it responded even more harshly. Those who stood around me weren't thugs, but they were ready to fight till the end and to respond to every blow of the law enforcement forces with a blow twice as strong. The police were absolutely not ready to what happened as a result, when chaos prevailed.

It's crazy. The people have shown that they are capable of [fighting back] the authorities completely spontaneously, without the support of parties and movements. And it was just the first day. Can you imagine what's going to happen there on Victory Day, for which many people gather even without such reasons?

Anyway, I'm scared for my country. I'm scared because those reasonable people I saw at the beginning of the rally were beaten up during the rally's dispersal - and, very suddenly, they were replaced by the demented thugs. It all began as a spontaneous attempt to defend the monument. And it ended... the way it ended.

***

A set of pogrom pictures by Flickr user neoroma is here.

***

A rather heated English-language discussion of the situation in Tallinn is currently taking place at Itching for Eestimaa - in the comment section to this post - 141 comments so far, and here's the last one:

mina: Just made a car-tour in downtown. [...]

And of course, scars of vandals are visible. Including Inglise Kolledž - windows smashed and Estonia Theatre ... but it was silent. I have never seen so silent city center - friday 2 am.

Russia, Estonia: The Monument

Global Voices Online
Friday, January 19, 2007

Estonia's parliament voted last week to relocate from the center of the capital Tallinn the Soviet-era monument to the Red Army soldiers who died in World War II. The bronze statue of a soldier was erected in 1947 and is considered by many as a symbol of Soviet occupation. The parliament's decision sparked protests by the country's ethnic Russians (25.6 percent of Estonia's total population of 1,324,333), as well as some officials and lawmakers in Russia, who see the monument as a symbol of liberation from the Nazis.

Giustino of Itching for Eestimaa (who is relocating from New York City to Tartu this month) mentions some other symbols and realities of the conflict:

[...] You see, Estonian men, to Russia, should be grateful eunuchs, kneeling before the "Soldier Liberator" of Tallinn with his tough expression, flowing cape, and leather boots. Any attempt by Estonian manhood to assess their fathers' actions by themselves, without dictation by Moscow, is akin to "glamorization of Nazism" or "glorification of fascism." [...] For those who are scratching their heads over Estonia's latest row with Russia, I would suggest to remember that Russians are not used to being told off by a bunch of roly-poly guys with names like Mart, Andrus, and Urmas. [...]

An emotional posting (RUS) by LJ user tukmakov (Denis Tukmakov, journalist for Aleksandr Prokhanov's ultra-nationalist Russian newspaper Zavtra) - titled "Yes, the occupiers we are" - basically confirms Giustino's observations:

The "Judge for Yourself" show has just been on on [the Russian] Channel 1. They were arguing about the Estonian government's decision to liquidate the monument to the Soviet soldiers who liberated [Tallinn] from the fascists.

For a long time, the group that was there to defend the monument - let's call them the Russian patriots (Prokhanov was among them) - was forced to make excuses and come up with a pile of arguments, trying to prove that the Soviet Union didn't really occupy Estonia, and even if it did, then Russia was occupied by it and was its victim as well [...], etc. Naturally, their opponents, some incoherent Jews, were rubbing salt into this favorite wound of theirs in all kinds of way, demanding that Russia repent for the occupation of the [Baltic states]. Estonians who participated in the show - the ambassador and a lawmaker - were happy.

I don't understand it. Why none of the patriots got up and said calmly: yes, we did occupy Estonia. And we'll occupy it again, if need be. Because we are a great country, capable of slicing Europe up whenever we feel like it. And Estonia is a piece of [expletive omitted] that keeps [sucking up to] those who are on a horse [superior]. No one said this. [Oscar-winning Russian filmmaker and actor Nikita Mikhalkov] seemed to have an urge to insert something like this, but he didn't.

It is that difficult - to be an imperialist? [...]

For a while, tukmakov's post was in the top 30 of the most popular texts of the Russian blogosphere (according to the Yandex Blogs portal). Among the diverse responses it has drawn (and continues to draw), there's even a video of the humiliating army practice known as dedovshchina, with older Russian soldiers treating their younger fellow-servicemen cruelly in the middle of the night.

Below is a selection of comments, translated from Russian:

origen_72: I think [the Russian parliament] has to develop a law (Russian, for now) that would ban changing the results of World War II. The Jews' example should be used - when they ban discussion of the Holocause, and who does it, goes either to jail or to Interpol. Criminal prosecution. And catch a few jerks and jail them for five years or so for denying Russia's liberating role in World War II.

[...]

radiotv_lover: I feel sorry for the remains of our soldiers that no one in Russia is willing to bury. While lawmakers-[expletive omitted] and LJ users, who've never seen anything in their lives except a computer, are attacking Estonia, there are HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS UNBURIED SOLDIERS that no one needs in Russia. [...] And such [a mess] is taking place all over the country of the fake patriots. They see a straw in Estonia's eye, but don't notice a log, or even a baobab, in their own.

[...]

rimona: This isn't your first post after which I feel like deleting you from my [LJ] friends list. Each time I was stopped by the thought that I'm not picking personal friends in LJ, that it's important to know different points of view, as long as I'm writing on politics. But my patience is up, and I've decided to delete you, after all. Of course, I cou;d've done it quietly, without any declarations. But I do feel like writing this, somehow. Keep up what you're doing, but from now on I won't shudder from reading your thoughts. And I'm glad about it.

[...]

lipkovich: And I feel like adding him [to LJ friends list]. It's a normal reaction of the dying-out nation.

[...]

sceptique_lj: If "we are the occupiers" - then they are right to demolish monuments to occupiers-"liberators." Nothing to be offended by. Why would the capital of a state have monuments to its former oppressors? I've never seen monuments to Napoleon or [Batu Khan]... [...]

[...]

poison_fan: It's not a big deal to fight with monuments. Why does it bother them? As for "We'll occupy again, if need be" - we should restore order in our own country and then [pose proudly as] a great state. Are these guys going to do the occupation?

[A 17-minute, 33.2 MB video of Russian soldiers serving in the army unit #3419, so far viewed 2,150 times by RuTube.ru users].

[...]

roman_shapiro: Russians in Estonia live better than [Russians] in Russia. They aren't really willing to leave. [...]

[...]

tukmakov: It's not about how Russians live in Estonia now. It's about Estonia holding SS marches and tearing down monuments to the Russian soldiers, with Europe staying completely silent about it. Actually, let them march and let them be silent. I want only one thing - I want Russians to stop being silent about it, I want them to react and I want to people to "regain subjectivity," to stop being [indifferent toward everything]. [...]

[...]

cyril_spb: Tell me honestly... if at Tallinn's main square they erect a monument to the Liberator Warrior ten times bigger [than the current one] - are the lives of Russians going to improve?

If not, then what [the hell]?..