Ukraine: Citizen Media and Political Forecasting

Global Voices Online
Thursday, January 22, 2010

Some of the online conversations about this year's Ukrainian presidential candidates appear to be somewhat lacking in substance. This, in part, can be explained by the fact that the most popular of these politicians have been around for quite a while and there isn't much left to discuss about them. There's also certain voter fatigue, as well as the fact that some voters seem to be guided by their ideas of physical attractiveness rather than more practical considerations when choosing the head of their state. As one blogger - LJ user grebeniuk - noted in an earlier GV translation,

[...] Political advisers, marketing and advertising specialists don't even have to bother! Comb your candidate, do the makeup, and go ahead! It's funny and sad :) [...]

Over-simplification isn't always a bad thing, though. Moscow-based LJ user limikon, for example, has managed to gain some curious insight by focusing on something that the top 5 presidential candidates (as well as the candidate who came in seventh) shared on the CVs: their past ties to ex-president Leonid Kuchma. He stripped the candidates of their names, which must have seemed redundant in this context, and shared his insight (RUS):

It's quite amusing to read the results of the Ukrainian election

#1 - Kuchma's premier;
#2 - Kuchma's vice-premier;
#3 - Kuchma's vice-premier, head of the [National Bank of Ukraine];
#4 - Kuchma's acting head of the [National Bank];
#5 - Kuchma's premier;
#7 - head of Kuchma's [Presidential Administration]

The mighty old man has laid eggs into Ukrainian politics that will last for the next 20 years. [...]

Despite such familiarity and other discouraging factors, there was no lack of interest in the outcome of the election, and, as a result, the blogosphere was overflowing with political forecasting attempts on the eve of the Jan. 17 vote.

Below are some of the actual results of the first round of the election (more about the vote, its winners and runners-up is here):

#1 - Victor Yanukovych - 35.32% (8,686,751 votes)
#2 - Yulia Tymoshenko - 25.05% (6,159,829 votes)
#3 - Serhiy Tihipko - 13.06% (3,211,257 votes)
#4 - Arseniy Yatsenyuk - 6.96% (1,711,749 votes)
#5 - Victor Yushchenko - 5.41% (1,341,539 votes)

And here are a few summaries of the polls and forecasts that appeared on Ukrainian and Russian blogs.

LJ user vaxo (Ukrainian journalist Vakhtang Kipiani) surveyed 301 bloggers (UKR), 22 of whom (7.89%) did not plan to vote in this election at all. The poll's results are below:

#1 - Victor Yushchenko - 35.48% (99 votes)
#2 - Serhiy Tihipko - 14.7% (41 votes)
#3 - Oleh Tyahnybok - 9.68% (27 votes)
#4 - Yulia Tymoshenko - 5.73% (16 votes)
#5 - Victor Yanukovych - 2.51% (7 votes)

LJ user kermanich (Ukrainian journalist Andrey Manchuk) was not pleased with the results of this poll and wrote this (RUS) about the Ukrainian blogosphere and the society in general:

[...] Reading the results of such an impromptu voting on [Kipiani's blog], it seems as if Ukrainian bloggers live not just in some other country, but altogether on a different planet.

[...]

Such an indecent gap between the opinion of the people and the opinion of the "patriotic blogosphere," represented by a thin social stratum of office intelligentsia, shows how hopelessly removed these folks are from the people. [...]

At least two more polls conducted by Ukrainian bloggers had Victor Yushchenko as their winner.

At chomusyk LJ community ("Ask Me: All that you wanted to ask about"), 495 people responded (UKR), 57 (11.5%) of them did not support any of the candidates and 83 (16.8%) did not plan to go to the polling station at all. Here's the rest the vote breakdown (UKR):

#1 - Victor Yushchenko - 27.5% (136 votes)
#2 - Anatoliy Hrytsenko - 15.4% (76 votes)
#3 - Serhiy Tihipko - 9.9% (49 votes)
#4 - Oleh Tyahnybok - 6.9% (34 votes)
#5 - Yulia Tymoshenko - 6.3% (31 votes)
#6 - Arseniy Yatsenyuk - 1.8% (9 votes)
#7 - Victor Yanukovych - 1.2% (6 votes)

At LJ user ledilid's blog, 188 people turned up for a vote (UKR):

#1 - Victor Yushchenko - 43.1% (81 votes)
#2 - Oleh Tyahnybok - 20.2% (38 votes)
#3 - Anatoliy Hrytsenko - 10.6% (20 votes)
#4 - Serhiy Tihipko - 7.4% (14 votes)
#5 - Yulia Tymoshenko - 5.9% (11 votes)
#6 - Arseniy Yatsenyuk - 5.3% (10 votes)
#7 - Victor Yanukovych - 1.1% (2 votes)

A poll (RUS) at LJ user sunlike77's blog, which surveyed 479 bloggers, produced comparatively realistic results:

#1 - Victor Yanukovych - 34.7% (166 votes)
#2 - Yulia Tymoshenko - 30.7% (147 votes)

And the forecasts by 126 bloggers who took part in LJ user kotyhoroshko's The People's Prognosis project (UKR), produced a pretty good reflection of the actual results as well:

#1 - Victor Yanukovych - 29.27%
#2 - Yulia Tymoshenko - 21.56%
#3 - Serhiy Tihipko - 9.48%

A Twitter poll (RUS) set up by Odesa-based Twitter user #netocrat drew 335 votes and had the following vote breakdown:

#1 - Serhiy Tihipko - 34% (114 votes)
#2 - Victor Yushchenko - 19% (65 votes)
#3 - Yulia Tymoshenko - 14% (47 votes)
#4 - Anatoliy Hrytsenko - 10% (33 votes)
#5 - Arseniy Yatsenyuk - 7% (24 votes)
#6 - Oleh Tyahnybok - 6% (21 votes)
#7 - Victor Yanukovych - 6% (19 votes)

One of Russia's most popular bloggers, LJ user drugoi, introduced his Ukrainian election survey (RUS) with a photo of three activists of the Ukrainian women's group FEMEN, who were urging voters at a Kyiv polling station not to sell their votes (their slogan (RUS): "Don't be a whore! Don't sell your vote!"). As of now, 3,931 bloggers have cast their votes (RUS) - and the voting seems to keep going:

#1 - Victor Yanukovych - 17% (670 votes)
#2 - Serhiy Tihipko - 16.8% (662 votes)
#3 - Yulia Tymoshenko - 13.8% (541 votes)

Another popular Russian blogger, LJ user tema, had 13,842 bloggers respond to his election-related survey (RUS), which seemed like the least serious in tone and presentation, but which nevertheless managed to place the first three contenders in the right order:

#1 - Victor Yanukovych - 19.9% (2,758 votes)
#2 - Yulia Tymoshenko - 15.7% (2,175 votes)
#3 - Serhiy Tihipko - 12.2% (1,685 votes)

LJ user yashin (Russian opposition activist Ilya Yashin, whose blog carries the following tagline: "El pueblo unido jamás será vencido"/"The people united will never be defeated" - one of the slogans of the 2004 post-election protests in Ukraine) hosted a political prognosis contest (RUS), and below is the average outcome of the bets submitted by 168 bloggers:

#1 - Victor Yanukovych - 31.4%
#2 - Yulia Tymoshenko – 24.7%
#3 - Serhiy Tihipko - 9.48%

U.S.-based LJ user kireev (Aleksandr Kireev, founder of the bilingual Electoral Geography website), conducted a political forecasting competition (RUS) as well, in which 99 bloggers took part - and he even issued two awards: one for the best forecast and one for the worst.

The best forecast award went to LJ user tulskiy (Russian political analyst Mikhail Tulskiy), whose guess was very close to the actual results:

#1 - Victor Yanukovych - 34.5%
#2 - Yulia Tymoshenko - 23%
#3 - Serhiy Tihipko - 15.5%

The worst forecast award - an optimist's pink glasses - went to LJ user tanya_ogf, who made the following projections:

#1 - Yulia Tymoshenko - 23.4%
#2 - Victor Yushchenko - 20.7%
#3 - Victor Yanukovych - 19.4%

Ukraine: Ternopil Regional Council Election

Global Voices Online
Sunday, March 22, 2009

Regional council election in the western Ukrainian region of Ternopil took place on March 15, following much political drama.

Ukrainian parliament set the date for the snap election on Dec. 18, 2008 (UKR). On March 3, 2009, 141 MPs from Yulia Tymoshenko's Bloc (BYuT) and 147 MPs from Victor Yanukovych's Party of Regions voted to cancel the election. One of the parties running in the election - Oleh Tyahnybok's All-Ukrainian Union Svoboda (Freedom) - appealed the parliament's decision in court, and won the appeal on March 11. The next day, BYuT appealed the pro-election ruling, but lost on March 14, and, later that day, announced that it would not take part in the election. The Ternopil regional election commission, however, refused to take BYuT off the ballots.

Tyahnybok's Svoboda won the election (34.69%, 153,038 votes, 50 seats out of 120), presidential chief of staff Victor Baloha’s United Center Party came in second (14.2%, 63,143 votes, 20 seats), followed by Yanukovych's Party of Regions (9.8%, 41,303 votes, 14 seats) - and BYuT finished fourth (8.12%, 36,056 votes, 12 seats).

In the previous Ternopil Regional Council election (UKR), held in March 2006, BYuT won 34.49% of the votes, taking 54 seats, pro-presidential People's Union "Our Ukraine" had 31.27% of the votes and 48 seats, while neither the Party of Regions, nor Svoboda were represented in the Ternopil regional council then.

In a March 16 interview (UKR) with Ukrainska Pravda, Tyahnybok announced his plans to run for president of Ukraine in 2010.

Vakhtang Kipiani - LJ user vaxo, a Ukrainian journalist of Georgian descent, who ran (UKR) unsuccessfully for Ukrainian parliament in 2006 on Vitali Klitschko's Pora-PRP ticket - wrote this (UKR) about the results of the Ternopil regional council election:

I'm not going to congratulate anyone - because 34 percent for xenophobes and ultra-patriots isn't an event that fills one with joy. Inefficiency of corrupt and dishonest politicians who call themselves democrats always produces various dragons - from the red ones to brown.

I don't see anything dangerous about it, it's nothing but the symptoms of an illness, not the illness itself. A regional council, fortunately, isn't a place where the ["Protection of Ukrainians Program" - UKR] or whatever it's called can be carried out.

If the democratic, liberal right is missing in Ternopil region - this is when Tyahnybok's guys come to that spot. This was going to happen. And it has happened.

P.S. Ten percent of the [Party of Regions people] in the [fine Ternopil region] - that's [sick], too.

Below are a few comments (UKR) to Kipiani's post:

mykolap:

They've voted for those who are visible locally - it's all logical.

sunshine_ok:

That's true that this time local personalities have got the votes, not Yulia, or Vitya, or someone else. [...]

And here is a similar observation (UKR) from LJ user ollko:

[...] In Ternopil region, Svoboda and United Center have basically done open list voting. There were no "outsiders" who [had paid to be included on the party lists]. Their people are known in districts and villages. This is one more explanation of the result they got. People are tired of brands and want specific individuals. [...]

Russia, Georgia: Unilateral Recognition of Abkhazia's and South Ossetia's Independence

Global Voices Online
Tuesday, August 26, 2008

See Global Voices special coverage page on the South Ossetia crisis.

Russia has formally recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia today. Below are some of the initial reactions from LiveJournal's Cyrillic sector.

Russian LJ user sholademi (Samson Sholademi) writes (RUS):

[...] Now the most interesting part begins... P.S. The line has been crossed, sort of. Though, in the past two weeks, since the beginning of the war in Georgia, everything that Russia does, for the first time in several years, does not cause me to feel outraged and critical (despite my "love" for Putin & Co.). Quite the opposite: everything's been done correctly. Long live the isolation! Hm... And what do you think about the recognition of Abkhazia's and South Ossetia's independence?

A few comments:

lyks:

Isolation - that's a good point. Soon we'll be traveling withing clearly defined borders, right? Farewell, India, goodbye, America [...]?

***

schtv_girl:

I think that we can, at last, be proud of our country! Regardless of how controversial it all is, regardless of how much they are accusing us of double standards, we've become strong! Russia is coming back! Join the action! [...]

***

zenya_zenya:

..............Couldn't care less..........Absolutely........

***

kirill_praha:

I think that those who live in Russia and wants to travel around the world, they should consider moving. Or getting a dual citizenship, which is difficult.

***

sethnagh:

Great. Now a wide river of the money of the Russian tax-payers will flow to these new "brotherly republics," damn it, to the stinking [Caucasus natives].

Georgian-Ukrainian LJ user vaxo (Vakhtang Kipiani) writes (UKR):

[...] You're a fool, Medvedev. Not a single normal country will support Russia. Now we'll see what a direct confrontation with the world is like.

A few comments:

yangel:

Such a scenario was to be expected (

***

viebelle

I have an impression that for the past couple of weeks [they couldn't care less and were doing as they pleased]. As for [Medvedev], I don't think he played the lead part in this.

vaxo:

Right, but he was the one to sign this order. And legally, he is the one responsible for it.

[...]

yangel:

[...] At one point, Turkey unilaterally recognized the independence of Northern Cyprus - do you think that Turkey has spent all these years in international isolation?

***

deniko76:

With so much oil, Russia can afford self-isolation. But I don't really understand why they should prefer isolation and being surrounded by "a circle of hatred" to normal friendly relationship with the neighbors.

***

steel_archer:

Their oligarchs keep their money in Swiss banks, and their villas are in London. We'll see what kind of isolation it will be )))

***

a_kulik:

There won't be any confrontation with the world. If there hadn't been Kosovo, there would've been a confrontation. But after Kosovo, everything will be OK for Russia. America has exchanged South Ossetia for Kosovo.

***

ledilid:

And these people are not allowing others to recognize Kosovo... [...]

***

agrp_xtb:

Direct confrontation with whom? With small but proud Estonia? Do you still believe that there is "confrontation" between the United States and the Russian Federation? [...]

Georgian LJ user djdrive (Misha Tavkhelidze) writes (RUS):

Looks like Putinodvedev has gone totally nuts. What are they pulling their country into?

1. War
2. Economic abyss
3. Disintegration

Russian, all of you who can, flee this country, while the curtain is still up! It'll be impossible to get a visa later.

One of the comments:

dimanklg:

Oh please. We are used to that.

Georgian-Russian LJ user som writes (RUS):

"Russia, you've gone nuts" (c)

I remember our answer to the civil defense teacher's question: What should you do if you see the nuclear mushroom at the horizon? - Pull a white bed sheet over your head and crawl to the cemetery.

Looks like the idiots believe that it's possible to win WWIII.

During the Caribbean Crisis, Kennedy and Khrushchev had enough of common sense to stop 20 minutes before the catastrophe. Will these ones have it, too? I don't really want to check.

Some of the comments:

psa_98:

Your lovely country (and especially two of its regions [Abkhazia and South Ossetia], whose population is smaller than Butovo [one of Moscow's districts]) aren't really worth a nuclear mushroom. I think that the Russian Federation is wrong in this conflict, but Saakashvili (and his curators from the State Department) have to be blamed equally - they've lost the game, too.

***

piligrim:

[...] Do you really think that Georgia is enough of a reason for the United States and NATO to start WWIII?

luarvique:

Well, Prince Ferdinand and Serbia were much of a reason, either...

a_gru:

And are you sure that only Americans and NATO states can start a war? Is there really no one but them out there?

***

pindle:

[...] I think Europe will thank us - quietly, of course. We've closed the situation, created a new, long-term and stable status quo, which is a lot more convenient for Europe than the previous one. [...]

LJ user physik_alfa writes (RUS) in the ru_politics LJ community:

Personally, I pity Abkhazia. They've been basically equaled with the thieves from South Ossetia. They could've been flourishing on tourism... Slowly, perhaps, but on their own and without blood. And now Kremlin [thugs] will seize everything for themselves there.

A few comments:

vyacha:

The Abkhaz aren't that naive when it comes to foreign investments. According to their laws, a foreign (including Russian) company cannot independently get involved in, say, construction there, can't even open a branch [...] office there. What's possible, though, are 50/50 investments with an Abkhaz [individual or company] [...]. I don't think anything will change much now. They know how to count their own money.

***

afx237_v7:

I was [in Abkhazia] a couple years ago and learned a lot of interesting things. Turns out many touristic objects [...] have already been bought (rented for 50 years, since the Abkhaz constitution does not allow to sell land to foreigners) by the Moscow guys.

LJ user dmitrivrubel has posted a graph illustrating what happened to the Russian stocks after Dmitry Medvedev made his Abkhazia and South Ossetia announcement at 3 PM Moscow time today:



LJ user onkel_hans commented (RUS):

In countries where economy rules, things like this lead to the fall of the government.

Georgia, Russia: Cyrillic Bloggers React to the Conflict in South Ossetia

Global Voices Online
Saturday, August 9, 2008

See Global Voices special coverage page on the South Ossetia crisis.)

In a brief report sent around noon on Aug. 8 from a hotel basement in Tskhinvali, the beleaguered capital of South Ossetia, Russian journalist Mikhail Romanov wrote this about the nature of the ongoing conflict between Georgia and Russia:

[...] The city is under heavy howitzer and mortar fire. An endless cannonade. I've seen many wounded people.

Peacekeepers are commenting succinctly: "This is war."

I was planning to leave tomorrow, a car was supposed to pick me up at 5 in the morning. Now it's not clear whether it'll pick me up. In general, nothing is clear.

Earlier that day, around 4 AM local time, LJ user alan_tskhurbaev, a blogger from Vladikavkaz, North Ossetia-Alania, had a phone conversation with a friend from Tskhinvali (RUS):

He is sitting in the basement, with a machine gun, and is so angry, he's almost crying. He says that machine guns are of no use to anyone here. Says that the city has been washed so forcefully with the [multiple rocket launcher system "Grad"] fire that the level of destruction is going to be very serious. He cannot talk about casualties yet, as there is even less information there than here. He says it has grown quieter now. He can't believe this is really happening. He's asking, Where is Russia?

U.S.-based LJ user saugin, who, in a comment to an earlier post by LJ user alan_tskhurbaev, mentioned (RUS) that his wife and younger son were also hiding in a basement in Tskhinvali, commented on Russia's involvement in the conflict and initiated the following discussion (RUS):

saugin:

On all forums I always used to say that Russia wasn't going to help us. Back home, they almost tore me into pieces for this. So where is this much-praised Russia now? I'd like to ask [Eduard Kokoity, president of South Ossetia] - where are your masters who you had trusted so much?

alan_tskhurbaev:

[We've been betrayed.]

vinous_granat [posted at 4:26 PM, after the Russian troops entered South Ossetia]:

Do you still think this way?

alan_tskhurbaev:

[They did desert us.] Russian tanks spent 15 hours riding through the tunnel. During this time, nothing was left of Tskhinvali.

LJ user m-yu-sokolov, a well-known Russian columnist,
reacted with joy and relief (RUS) on hearing of Russia's decision to deploy troops to South Ossetia. Based outside the volatile region, however, he seemed more concerned with his country's image rather than the human suffering and destruction caused by the fighting:

You've heard my prayers, God. Our tanks are moving towards Tskhinval. Russia has chosen against shameful dishonor.

Eduard Limonov, leader of the seemingly oppositional National Bolshevik Party, issued a rather un-oppositional statement, in which he called the Russian leadership to become even more involved in the conflict in South Ossetia - and in Abkhazia, another breakaway region of Georgia. LJ user skovorodnikov reposted Limonov's statement in the namarsh_ru LJ community:

http://www.nazbol.ru/rubr2/2339.html

A new war has broken out in the Caucasus region. Last night, Georgian forces intruded on the territory of South Ossetia, which has been an independent state for 15 years already. Severe fighting is taking place there now.

The leadership of the Russian Federation has already made a tragic mistake. Russia should have peacefully deployed its troops to South Ossetia long before the battles allowed the Georgians in. Now there is only one obvious way for Russia to respond. Namely, as a preventive measure, Russian troops should immediately enter Abkhazia. Simultaneously, North Ossetian and Cossack volunteers should be allowed to form armed groups and fight against the Georgian troops in South Ossetia.

I insist on recommending the Russian leadership to follow my advice. This is the only way for Russia to save face and keep the status of a great country.

Below is a snippet of a subsequent discussion (RUS) of Limonov's stance, which took place between two bloggers, one of whom appears to be a supporter of the National Bolshevik Party:

fox_unexisted:

Well, pro-Kremlin [National Bolsheviks] - it's beyond me.

nb_kazan:

What is pro-Kremlin about it?

fox_unexisted:

A total agreement on this issue! While it's worth considering that a victorious war will only strengthen the current regime!

nb_kazan:

Damn it, and what if Putin suddenly gives us a real democracy and flourishing [...]? Are you going to be against it as well? In general, this TOTAL rejection of any of the regime's steps is driving me mad sometimes. The regime cannot ALWAYS be wrong. Sometimes they act correctly, but even in this case the regime has acted too slowly and clumsily. [...]

fox_unexisted:

The Russian people will get nothing out of it but the bodies of the Russian soldiers who died in a war for the Georgian territory. [...]

While the boundary separating the Russian opposition from their pro-Kremlin counterparts is somewhat blurry now, Russian hippie bloggers consider holding an anti-war demonstration. LJ user svetlyj_vrn wrote this (RUS) in the ru_hippy LJ community:

[...] We've found ourselves in a similar situation as our brethren had in America in the 60s. The governments of Georgia, Ossetia, Russia and America, with support from the UN, are pushing the world towards yet another war. The Vietnam War was stopped thanks to the efforts of the hippies. What about us? Are we going to stand on the sidelines? Maybe we should remind the world what a pacifists' demonstration is like? [...]

It remains to be seen, however, whether anything will come out of this initiative.

Since the escalation of the conflict in South Ossetia has coincided with the opening of the Olympics in China, a number of bloggers commented on that as well.

LJ user shavu posted this sarcastic item (RUS), referring to the recent Russian-Chinese agreement that ended a decades-long territorial dispute between the two states:

By the way, yes - everything had been planned in advance. They had even paid China with a little island for the inconvenience [to be] caused on the opening day of the Olympics.

LJ user scrolllock wrote (RUS):

Currently on TV: Georgian Olympic team is walking down the stadium in Beijing, the athletes are waving flags, forced smiles on their faces. What does it feel like, to be walking and smiling [...], while there's a war going on back home? [...]

LJ user vaxo, a Ukrainian-Georgian journalist Vakhtang Kipiani, compared the pre-war situation in South Ossetia to what's taking place in Crimea now and explained (RUS, UKR) why Ukrainian officials "should better be watching broadcasts from Tskhinvali rather than the opening of the Olympic Games":

"Leonid Grach, a Communist and people's deputy of Ukraine from Crimea, said that if Ukraine joined NATO, Crimea would secede from [Ukraine]. 'This is an alternative for the Crimean people, for which they are ready by now. Crimeans will never agree to live in a country that's been dragged into NATO,' said Grach."

If you take into account that our [government] doesn't know how many citizens of Ukraine who live in [Crimea] hold Russian passports + [the problem of 2017] ([Russian Black Sea Fleet] - "no one is leaving anywhere!") = today's events in Georgia shouldn't be treated as something that has nothing to do with [Ukraine]. [...]

Kipiani didn't specify which TV channels the Ukrainian authorities should be tuning in to for the news from South Ossetia, but, judging from another post of his (UKR), he did not mean Russia's state-owned Channel 1:

After reporting the deaths of 1,400 people ("citizens of Russia," so to say!) - they are airing laughter and jokes [by popular Russian entertainers].

[...] Either the loss of over a thousand people is a trifle for the Kremlin and [Channel 1 management], or they think everyone else around them are fools.